Aqute Research Blog

Turning the real world into a database

I was going to write about the compass on the Google mobile phone but Seamus has already done so (another of his very perceptive posts).

This is a big deal, as they say in the land of the free.

Other phones will have compasses; the interface itself may come and go. But this is another step by Google towards integration of the real and virtual worlds. Ten, twenty years from now, we will perceive the boundaries between the real and virtual worlds much less distinctly than we do now (it's no longer all that rare to find people who equate looking at pictures of a place on Google Images or Flickr with visiting it physically; and Eric Schmidt was only half joking when he said he didn't have to travel to see the Himalayas because he can see them on Google Earth). And suddenly, mobile advertising becomes orders of magnitude more significant than today's text links.

Adding a compass to a mobile phone may not be all that difficult. But few companies other than Google have the vision to work towards this half-virtual-half-real world (Microsoft, maybe Nokia). Apple may have the imagination but is likely to partner with Google. At this stage, only Google can pull together the data, the consumer-generated content, the mapping, the search elements, the devices and whatever else you need. And by the time it becomes obvious to other companies just how important this will be, Google will have a decade's head start. When the physical world becomes a platform on which Google can build, having fought over the desktop operating system will seem childish in comparison.

Sony Ericsson Xperia blogger relations

A very good blogger relations website from Sony Ericsson, for the UK launch of the Xperia handset.

Google, Ofcom and UK wireless spectrum

Recently I used WhatDoTheyKnow to ask Ofcom whether Google wanted UK wireless spectrum. Mainly because I was excited by WhatDoTheyKnow but, what do you know (funny, eh), it works! Here is Ofcom's answer (link to PDF):

Yell signs O2 deal

For some no doubt weak reason, I did not write about this at the time. I am not going to mention every deal that Yell signs, but this one with O2 (which is half-heartedly opening up its web access) is important because it's taken Yell only a few months to achieve since the company started getting serious about its online/mobile strategy, compared to the ongoing failed attempts that Google is pursuing with European mobile operators.

It is another punch in the nose to Google, which has been trying to get such deals for quite some time. In fact, Google had some mobile deals around the turn of the century in various European countries, but these have lapsed somewhat. Since Google has become more of a competitor, the mobile operators have been less forthcoming.

Something of which Yell is probably aware, is that another competitor may be looming nearby, namely Yahoo. Yahoo was also suffering the same mobile limbo fate as Google but has, in contrast, ramped up its mobile deal signings in the past year in the US, and one has to assume they are missing from our mobile screens here only because they have not yet got round to redoubling their UK efforts. Yahoo is also big on local, and could be more attractive to operators than Yell given that it can offer more services with just one deal. Not a big issue at present, but these things are best anticipated than regretted. Yahoo could opt to go for photos/messenger deals instead, but it is unlikely to ignore local altogether. And sometime around 2007, which admittedly is a lifetime away, MSN will no doubt come calling with some mobile local+satellite application.

Ecosystem costs for consumer devices

Back from holiday...

An obvious concept that I had not come across before, this is a good idea: the cost of creating a software ecosystem when you buy an electronic device (PC, mobile, PSP, whatever...). I don't think this influences the hardware buyer (it does not influence me), but it is nonetheless interesting.

Yell Mobile

Continuing my musings on Yell, and Google, and the UK space...a month ago I said:

About 6 weeks ago, I posted on how Yell had a better mobile mapping service than Google. That was a long time ago, and here is a glimpse of Google's answer. The best thing for Google? Now that it has opened up the Maps API, Google doesn't even need to worry about developing a mobile version. Some third party did this one, and you can be sure that some UK developer will do it soon enough. True, the Yell service is better monetized but Google doesn't care, they'll take your users away from you whether they can monetize them or not.

Yell, a UK online company with a limited timeframe in which to strike out for greatness, needs a response. In the UK, Yell has partnered with Google Maps. Nice deal, but Google comes out the winner. First because Yell have enabled Google to launch in the UK in a way they could not otherwise have done; and secondly because Google hopes that a "partnership" will keep Yell's ambitions quiet until Google has grown big enough in the UK not to need Yell. President Bush reminded us this week just what a "partnership" with an American giant means.

Well, Yell did come up with an answer, and in double quick time. Yell and Nokia have announced a deal to provide the former's local UK listings on the three of the latter's handsets.

Nokia today introduced a pioneering mobile search software solution that provides users with easy and fast access to leading search engines directly from their Nokia handset. The search application is a simple, convenient, and fast way for Nokia smartphone users to find and connect to any website as well as local search engines, whenever, wherever.

The current service and content providers incorporated in the search application include Eniro, Fonecta, Medio Systems, Yahoo!, Yell.com, as well as digital map solution provider AtlasCT and digital map data provider NAVTEQ.

In addition to Yahoo! Search services, users in the UK, Finland and Sweden also have access to local business and service information providers, namely Yell.com in the UK, Eniro and Fonecta in Finland, and Eniro in Sweden. UK users will also be able to conduct content-based searches via Medio Systems.

It is not clear how this is all going to pan out, but Yell has pulled itself up into contention with Google, and the situation is poised intriguingly.

From Google's point of view ... Google has no ability to attract small business in any meaningful way in the UK. Indeed, anywhere, hence its partnerships with yellow pages companies and telcos in the US. So Google needs Yell. It's a risky partner to have, because Yell clearly has ambitions of its own. However if the Google strategy is being driven from the US, they may not fully appreciate that, instead categorizing Yell's chances of single-handed success along with companies like Verizon or SBC, which will never be a serious national threat to Google in the US. Google's Maps strategy is broader than Yell's. Their acquisition of Dodgeball and Meetroduction suggests a large consumer and networking element to their geographical products. But still, Schmidt has made it very clear that ecommerce and small business are important. Google would be nothing without small businesses. So Google needs to enter the UK local listings market and the only way to do it is with Yell. Fine, but Google does not have a history of relying on other companies for long. Does Google have an exit plan? Possibly not. If Google wants to stop depending on Yell some day, it will have to build its own database of small businesses listing on Google Maps, much like Yahoo did for its local and shopping channels. This is extremely difficult to do it, especially on a global basis (Yell need only build such a database, which it already has, in one country - Google needs to fight everyone on their home turf). However, I don't think Google will build the "database" in the same way that Yell has done. For a start, that is ultimately a losing strategy. Google has to do this in fifty markets worldwide. It may win some, but it will lose more. And Google is much better at scalable computing projects than at relationship building. The products and features they featured at the Factory Tour were all about providing search answers based on computer analysis of web data. So Google's plan is to extract all the local listing data from the UK web, using its search algorithms. That is scaleable, that is something Google can roll out to any country without needing to strike all these pesky deals with companies that want a piece of you. Use Yell for 2-3 years, then add local listings extracted from the web.

From Yell's point of view ... When Google came calling, Yell probably saw their chance to make some money off a company so big and so successful that they could never compete properly anyway. Perhaps they still think so, or perhaps working closely with Google has shown Yell that in terms of small businesses, Google are perfectly beatable. Yes Google have a bunch of small businesses as AdWords customers, but nothing in comparison to the number that have a relationship with Yell. Google may well develop a far more popular and cool-looking Maps service but if the quality of business listings is poor, it is a house built on poor foundations. the problem for Yell is that they're not so hot at attracting visitors. From the outside it feels like they were a hugely successful company until the Internet arrived, then they went to sleep for a few years, and Google's knocking at their door has woken them up. Meanwhile Yell have moved to the mobile space in a big way. This is a weak spot for Google who, for all their might, and in fact because of the fear that this might creates in operators, have done very little in mobile. Not only a weak spot, but a sore one because mobile is very important to Google and they have done nothing worthy of their brand. So when mobile services finally become mainstream, Yell will be the clear leader (the slow adoption of advanced services will work against Yell because it gives Google time to catch up). When Google makes to strike out on its own, Yell will have a stronger position from which to aim at the PC market.

Three key issues for Google:

1. Will algorithm-based local listings ever be as good as man-assembled? What does Google do if it cannot match Yell in quality?
2. How can it break into the mobile space? There is no way Yell will help them out there. Do the terms of the deal with Yell allow Google to take its web content and present it on mobiles? That would make Google's life easier
3. Encourage independent developers to roll out Google Maps services on PC and and mobile to such an extent that Yell's efforts look puny in comparison - indeed move the game way beyond the scope of yellow pages listings, as is happening with the countless Maps mash-ups.

Three key issues for Yell:

1. More of the same. For 2005-06, continue to strike deals with operators (Nokia is not enough) and handset manufacturers, while making no serious competitive moves against Google on the PC.
2. Yell needs to build a better brand online. According to NNR, Yell attracts around 2 million monthly visitors compared to 16 million for Google. Ultimately, if they cannot be the number one, or strong number 2 or 3 in the local search space, their mobile strategy will make them little more than a mid-market player. Just because things are going well in mobile does not mean the PC is unimportant.
3. How will Yell counter Google's API platform? This is massively important to Yell. It may not seem so, but by the time it becomes clear, it will be too late (developers, developers, developers...). Without a reply, Yell will lose the PC market. Which will make its mobile efforts much weaker than they could be as a part of a holistic strategy. Indeed when the mobile web becomes open, more accessible and less controlled, Yell will lose that too if they have no counter to Google APIs.

This is a fascinating play to watch unfold. By mid 2006, Yell will clearly be the company to beat in mobile local search, and Google in PC local search. By the end of 2006/start of 2007, we will begin to see each one move into the other's space in a serious way.

My money is on Google ultimately, because of their APIs and consumer appeal, but if Yell comes up with APIs of its own and a better PC maps interface (the current one is OK but a bit clunky), then I'll be switching my allegiances :) . Although Yell is doing better than Google in mobile, that cannot be separated completely frow what is happening on the PC.

And let's not get started on Yahoo...

PS One thing that will be interesting to explore are the roles and intentions of Tele Atlas and Navteq, the mapping data providers to Google in the UK and US respectively, especially given that Navteq is one of the providers that has struck the Nokia deal.

The walled garden comes tumbling down

It's quite common to point out that the walled garden was a bad idea. Take AOL for example. It has been clear for a while that their walled garden model was getting quite awkward for them to deal with, and the launch of AOL.com this summer is the beginning of the end. Actually, it isn't that simple. The walled garden did create, in its time, the world's biggest media company. Even now it still counts a large number of subscribers. The point is that the walled garden cannot be a company's only strategy, although it can still play a useful role. Still, the fact remains that walled gardens are out of fashion.

The same is now happening in mobile. T-Mobile is making Google its default home page for certain phones, casting doubt on the company's t-zones strategy. Is T-Mobile right to do so? The question may be a redundant one while the mobile Internet remains under-utilised, but 3 is also reconsidering, and Vodafone too is not so keen on Live any more:

The surprising thing is how open operators are starting to be about the effect this is having on their portals. "Direct to consumer was 70% of our £500 million 2004 market," said Vodafone's head of commercial partnerships, Jeremy Flynn. "The portal is still vital and Live! brought the mass market. Vodafone Live! will be the showcase, but the money and margin is in facilitating off-portal services."

It would be interesting to speculate on the extent to which Google itself is a walled garden, conceptually. If we continue to use nothing but Google (especially us UK people), we are just surfing a very large garden, with some websites seemingly ever-missing, just because they do not appear in the search results. I realise this is not a proper walled garden, but I find it an interesting question nonetheless.

As the walled garden comes to an end on the mobile phone, a slightly different type of site access model will take its place to that used on the PC. Surfing on the mobile is not so easy, so there will be more destination targeting, with users going directly to preferred sites. I don't know if you can do that on Live yet, but certainly on T-Mobile and Orange it has been possible for a long time to visit user-selected sites outside any walled garden. Those sites had better find out that they have a mobile audience, and create mobile versions of their content.

Google Maps on Mobile

About 6 weeks ago, I posted on how Yell had a better mobile mapping service than Google. That was a long time ago, and here is a glimpse of Google's answer. The best thing for Google? Now that it has opened up the Maps API, Google doesn't even need to worry about developing a mobile version. Some third party did this one, and you can be sure that some UK developer will do it soon enough. True, the Yell service is better monetized but Google doesn't care, they'll take your users away from you whether they can monetize them or not.

Yell, a UK online company with a limited timeframe in which to strike out for greatness, needs a response. In the UK, Yell has partnered with Google Maps. Nice deal, but Google comes out the winner. First because Yell have enabled Google to launch in the UK in a way they could not otherwise have done; and secondly because Google hopes that a "partnership" will keep Yell's ambitions quiet until Google has grown big enough in the UK not to need Yell. President Bush reminded us this week just what a "partnership" with an American giant means.

Kinda reminds you of Aragorn having to hold out until dawn, when Gandalf arrives with reinforcements. Yell's defences must hold. Meanwhile they need to figure out what's going to be the online version of Gandalf.

Google Local Mobile vs Yell Mobile

If you are outside and want to find the nearest restaurant, or a specific address, using your mobile, Google and Yell can both help you.

Google Local Mobile

To use Google Local Mobile, you send an SMS query to Google and Google returns the requested listings as another SMS. Here is a query sample:

Google returns two results. Since Google returns many more results online, one has to assume these are limited to two for the mobile interface. Each result is a separate text message. Here is an example of the first one I received:

and scrolling down that message ... :

The service is quick and simple, but it is not very helpful. Without a map, I am unlikely to find Wilton Road (I live 200 metres away but I do know which road is Wilton Road).

Yell Mobile

To use Yell.com Mobile requires, first, a one time install. This is easy, you send a text message to Yell, then click OK a few times as requested and the install is done. Thereafter you open the application to submit your queries (I don't have a fancy mobile, it's the Sony Ericsson T610, which everyone and their grandmother seems to have these days).

This is the interface for submitting a query:

Yell returns two results, in one content unit, rather than two SMS messages. This is the first returned result:

Yell Mobile has an extra feature, which is a graphical map:

Incidentally, the two services returned different results, probably due to my entering the postcode as a broad "sw1" but both services returned restaurants that are all very close, so the quality is the same (oddly, since Google Local is powered by Yell online, but this does not seem to happen for mobile).

The winner?

The Google service is quick, simple and costs the price of the SMS message. The details are in text messages, which means that if I forget what they said I can go back and check again, for free (since they are stored on my mobile). The big drawback is that I am none the wiser about where to find the restaurant so the information is useless. Google has a separate and similar directions service, but it does not work very well, or at all, especially if you do not know the postcode. The Google examples on its help page include finding a chemist on W1B 5RA, but if you know your postcode to that detail, chances are you know the nearest chemist.

The Yell service involves an initial install (although this is painless) and there are a lot more clicks required from the user. Some are just to click OK and some to navigate through screens, and the Yell interface is prettier, but certainly there are many more clicks than with Google and the overall process is longer. The basic service is free but maps are 25 pence, and directions are 25 pence (Google has no maps, although you can see that coming, for free, and Google directions are free, although Yell directions work better), and it is unclear whether the operator is charging me for what seems to be web access by the Yell application.  But with Yell I can actually find the restaurant.

Ultimately, both services have good and bad aspects (Google wins on cost and simplicity; Yell wins on aesthetics and information) but only with Yell will I be able to find the restaurant, so Yell wins.

Update: This weekend I used Google Maps directions (online, not mobile) for the first time. I think Google Maps is beautiful. But the directions are useless for car journeys. You cannot easily print off the detailed turnings (smaller maps within the map), all you can print off is one main map that because of the high zoom level is fairly useless. It's all very well knowing:

5. Turn right at South Lambeth Road - go 0.9 mi
6. Turn left at A3 - go 0.0 mi

But that assumes that these roads are clearly signposted and the turnings are straightforward (in the road jungles of South London? you'll be lucky). I shall instead use Mapquest, with all the mini maps expanded, and print that off.

Mobile blog

We are starting a blog just for mobile, rather than putting the mobile stuff here. Do check it out.

This follows on from the online finance blog a couple of weeks back.