How much money can Google make from TV, radio, print ads?

Google has a number of exciting, if slow burning, offline advertising programmes. Google Print Ads, Google Radio Ads and Google TV Ads. Exciting except that these are now declining markets, or at least not growing. According to the IAB, UK advertising spend on each of these platforms for 2005, 2006 and 2007 was:

Given Google's progress on each of these platforms in the US, let's assume that Google Print Ads launches in the UK for 2009, Google TV Ads in 2010 and Google Radio Ads launches in 2011 (I doubt Google Radio Ads will launch at all here). Each programme will then spend a year sitting around in beta or with very limited access. Also let's assume that it will then take each programme two years to achieve 5% market penetration (warning, fuzzy guesswork alert - you could argue that is too optimistic for Google). So:

• Google Print Ads will have 5% market penetration in 2012. By which time the Print advertising market may be worth £5,500M. So Google's cut is £275M.
• Google TV Ads will have 5% market penetration in 2013. By which time the TV advertising market may be worth £3,600M. So Google's cut is £180M.
• Google Radio Ads will have 5% market penetration in 2014. By which time the radio advertising market may be worth £550M. So Google's cut is £28M.

So broadly speaking, by 2012-2014, Google would make £483M per year across these three offline platforms. Which is nice. Call it £500M so that no one is deluded about accuracy.

And how much will Google make online? Given that Google made £483M in 2005, £872M in 2006 and £1,265M in 2007, let's say that by 2013, from online advertising, they will make £3,300M. Total £3,800M.

So in what is probably an optimisic scenario for Google, offline advertising products would account for 13% of its total UK revenues in 2012-2014.