Thoughts on technology hype, and a possible crash

You will note, down the side of the page, the "signs of a coming crash" list. I think these are interesting, but I don't think there will be a crash, really. Mainly because the difference between now and 2001 is that the ordinary man doesn't care any more; he does not have his life savings invested in dot com shares. Everyone playing the game now is an adult, we all know that things might fail, and if they do, we will just get up and try something else, no drama, it's just part of the fun. Nonetheless, there are some interesting parallels.

Gartner made famous their "technology hype" chart, which I display below (I drew this one because I could not find it on their site):

The description of each stage is as follows:

1. "Technology Trigger"
The first phase of a Hype Cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.

2. "Peak of Inflated Expectations"
In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.

3. "Trough of Disillusionment"
Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.

4. "Slope of Enlightenment"
Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.

5. "Plateau of Productivity"
A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market. 

Now, clearly we already experienced the peak and trough. But what if there is a second peak and trough, probably less marked, since we learnt some lessons the first time round?

What struck me today, apart from the signs already on the list I mentioned, is this entry about the Search Engine Strategies show. Don't get me wrong, the SES show is fantastic, the best show in the industry and I applaud the way they are making money - it is nothing more than their reward for putting on a great series of conferences with good content. But it does remind me of 2001. I used to work at Jupiter (who were acquired by the company running SES) and it was also an issue then that the conferences were a barometer of the industry. At one point, they were huge (although not as much as this week's show, I don't think), and next thing you knew, they had gone.

So, while I congratulate the SES folks and am just using them as an example because they are the most successful Internet conference, and while I don't think there will really be a crash because the man on the Clapham omnibus isn't up to his neck in dot com shares, I just think, ho hum. Which, incidentally, is the zenith of my analytical skills, "ho hum".